NWMLS News release – September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers’ positions

Here is the text of the NWMLS news release.  Below that is a link to www.SeattleBubble.com which provides an alternate view of things.  I have my doubts that this summers’ market means a full blown recovery of the real estate market.  But, I do think its a sign that things are better on the residential side of things.  Still I recommend checking the Bubble’s view to balance the overly optimistic MLS view.

September housing statistics around Washington indicate recovery is continuing, strengthening sellers’ positions

KIRKLAND, WA, September 5, 2012 – Pending sales, closed sales and prices all increased in August compared to a year ago, according to the latest figures from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Those key indicators, coupled with the persistent shortage of inventory, prompted one industry leader to declare the market has flipped.

Brokers reported 8,338 pending sales of single family homes and condominiums last month for a year-over-year increase of 9.3 percent. Fourteen of the 21 counties in the Northwest MLS service area reported double-digit gains in the number of mutually accepted offers.

Last month’s pending transactions nearly equaled the July total of 8,416 sales and marked the fifth consecutive month of at least 8,000 pending sales.

Closed sales, reflecting several months of strong pending sales, reached the highest volume so far in 2012. Brokers tallied 6,612 closings last month, continuing a streak of four months of 6,000-plus completed transactions.

“In housing markets, slow and steady recoveries are good,” said MLS director Frank Wilson, the branch managing broker at John L. Scott’s Poulsbo office. “A market that runs too high or too fast leads to a quick decline in short order,” he commented, adding he expects good momentum to continue into the fall.

The median price on last month’s closed sales rose more than 5.9 percent, to an area-wide figure of $250,000. That’s up from the year-ago median sales price of $236,000 for single family homes and condos combined, but tapered off from the July figure of $254,900. Clark County claimed the largest year-over-year gain at 18.3 percent, followed by Cowlitz (18 percent), Mason (nearly 16 percent), and Kittitas (13.7 percent) counties.

For single family homes only (excluding condos), prices jumped nearly 6.7 percent, from $247,000 to $263,500. Buyers of single family homes in King County paid $378,000 for last month’s sales, an increase of 8 percent from the year-ago median selling price of $350,000.

“The biggest story this year is that the market has flipped,” proclaimed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. He attributes the shift to a seller’s market in most areas and prices to a combination of factors, including historically low interest rates, lower adjusted prices, the shortage of inventory, an elevated number of investors, and the return of local home buyers.

Northwest MLS directors OB Jacobi and Joe Spencer are similarly encouraged by the latest numbers, mentioning steady momentum, rising consumer confidence, low inventory, a pickup of activity in new construction, and improving prospects for homeowners who are underwater.

Northwest MLS members were hard-pressed to replenish inventory last month. They added 8,379 new listings to inventory — 749 fewer new listings than a year ago, and about the same as the number of pending sales (8,338). Last month’s additions brought the month-end total to 25,506 listings, down more than 28 percent from the year-ago inventory of 36,907 homes and condos.

“Inventory levels are incredibly low, but our hope is that many homeowners who were underwater can now afford to sell because of the continued appreciation of home prices,” remarked OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company. He also noted a pick-up of activity in the new construction housing market, which he expects will add much needed inventory throughout Puget Sound.

Wilson said he expects activity in Kitsap to pick up there once school resumes and after a typical “pause” around Labor Day. Noting increases in pending sales, closed sales and prices, he said “the only number that is down is the steady decrease in inventory. Lower inventory combined with low interest rates are what is going to carry this momentum forward into the fall,” he remarked.

Another MLS director, Joe Spencer, said the low inventory and heightened buyer activity are resulting in an imbalance of supply and demand, but he believes that “bodes well as we move into the fall season, which typically ushers in an increase in buyer activity.”

Buyers and sellers are “clearly more confident,” reported Spencer, the area director for Keller Williams. These consumers “are looking to take advantage of the market rebound in what appears to be a continued slow and sustainable recovery.”

The condo market showed mixed results. Both pending and closed sales increased, but inventory is at about half the levels of a year ago, and prices are essentially flat.

Brokers reported 1,130 pending sales of condos for a 7.5 percent gain from a year ago and a slight uptick from the total for July (1,188).

MLS members reported 889 closed sales of condominiums area-wide for a 16.1 percent year-over-year gain. The median sales price on those sales was $174,000, which is $1,000 less than a year ago (down 0.57 percent). Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership includes more than 21,000 real estate brokers. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 21 counties in Washington state.

Statistical Summary by Counties: Market Activity Summary – August 2012

Single Family Homes + Condos	LISTINGS		PENDING SALES	CLOSED SALES
	New Listings	Total Active	# Pending Sales	# Closings	Avg. Price	Median Price
King	3,195	6,432	3,298	2,730	$414,308	$340,000
Snohomish	1,185	2,322	1,324	1,057	$274,460	$246,000
Pierce	1,225	3,792	1,334	983	$223,534	$199,950
Kitsap	416	1,573	385	304	$295,875	$246,250
Mason	142	843	96	58	$189,262	$163,500
Skagit	177	946	204	127	$243,742	$210,000
Grays Harbor	144	912	101	53	$130,698	$123,500
Lewis	105	732	86	55	$136,574	$137,500
Cowlitz	114	540	124	90	$167,828	$159,950
Grant	114	605	76	76	$161,488	$155,500
Thurston	399	1,314	391	306	$225,338	$218,000
San Juan	41	453	43	26	$385,029	$325,000
Island	169	942	143	125	$322,621	$250,000
Kittitas	93	527	72	74	$280,027	$195,500
Jefferson	77	565	63	39	$290,381	$242,000
Okanogan	63	458	32	36	$223,484	$155,750
Whatcom	414	1,643	326	262	$270,179	$237,250
Clark	50	225	50	57	$265,341	$210,000
Pacific	41	443	35	35	$109,531	$95,000
Ferry	8	78	5	1	$199,500	$199,500
Clallam	77	471	52	43	$183,332	$163,000
Others	130	690	98	75	$204,201	$190,000
MLS TOTAL	8,379	26,506	8,338	6,612	$315,656	$250,000

4-County Puget Sound Region Pending Sales (SFH + Condo combined) (Totals include King, Snohomish, Pierce & Kitsap counties)

	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
2000	3706	4778	5903	5116	5490	5079	4928	5432	4569	4675	4126	3166
2001	4334	5056	5722	5399	5631	5568	5434	5544	4040	4387	4155	3430
2002	4293	4735	5569	5436	6131	5212	5525	6215	5394	5777	4966	4153
2003	4746	5290	6889	6837	7148	7202	7673	7135	6698	6552	4904	4454
2004	4521	6284	8073	7910	7888	8186	7583	7464	6984	6761	6228	5195
2005	5426	6833	8801	8420	8610	8896	8207	8784	7561	7157	6188	4837
2006	5275	6032	8174	7651	8411	8094	7121	7692	6216	6403	5292	4346
2007	4869	6239	7192	6974	7311	6876	6371	5580	4153	4447	3896	2975
2008	3291	4167	4520	4624	4526	4765	4580	4584	4445	3346	2841	2432
2009	3250	3407	4262	5372	5498	5963	5551	5764	5825	5702	3829	3440
2010	4381	5211	6821	7368	4058	4239	4306	4520	4350	4376	3938	3474
2011	4272	4767	6049	5732	5963	5868	5657	5944	5299	5384	4814	4197
2012	4921	6069	7386	7015	7295	6733	6489	6341

Copyright © 2012 Northwest Multiple Listing Service ALL RIGHTS RESERVED This material may not be copied, published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without prior permission.

The SeattleBubble.com view

I think SeattleBubble takes too negative of a view (much like the MLS and NAR like to go too positive).  My guess is that they have to, in order be the ‘objective’ voice.  Anyway read their view here.

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2012/09/06/august-reporting-roundup-market-flip-edition/

And, if you haven’t seen our view before, it’s simple: “Don’t purchase a home because of the ‘market’ but because you want to own a home.”  We are glad to help you with the financial analysis piece of the decision plus help you make the non-financial decision.  In fact, check out our Home Buyer 101 class coming up. We’ve got one scheduled in December and hope to come up with another before then.